What now for Pakistan?

Islamabad - Pakistan's political parties are jockeying for post-election position, with the opposition mulling a coalition government and President Pervez Musharraf trying to split them to shore up his power.



Here are some of the possible options after the parliamentary poll, according to various media reports;


Opposition coalition: The Pakistan People's Party of slain former premier Benazir Bhutto and the party of Nawaz Sharif, the man Musharraf ousted in 1999, are the two big winners from the vote.


But neither can form a government on their own and both Sharif and Bhutto's widower, Asif Ali Zardari, say they want a coalition with other opposition parties.


The pro-Musharraf Pakistan Muslim League-Q, which backed the former general Musharraf in the last parliament, came in a distant third in the vote.


Sharif and Zardari would likely include in any coalition the Awami National party, a secular, ethnic Pashtun grouping that ousted Islamic parties in northwest Pakistan.


They could also bring on board the Muttahida Qaumi Movement, a Karachi-based party that worked with the PML-Q in the last parliament.


This is the option that would cause the biggest problem for Musharraf, leaving the former general at the mercy of the new parliament.


Pressure on Musharraf: The amount of pressure such an opposition coalition would put on Musharraf could vary.


In theory it could seek Musharraf's impeachment, although this would be difficult.


Not only would it require a vote in the Senate, the upper house of parliament still ruled by Musharraf supporters, but Musharraf could also try to dissolve parliament and head off the threat.


"Disputes or differences are likely to emerge between the presidency and the new government, but Musharraf has the major weapon of dissolution of assemblies," senior political and constitutional expert Anees Jillani said.


A riskier situation for Musharraf will come if the new government seeks the restoration of the country's deposed chief justice.


Musharraf deposed Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry under a state of emergency in November, in what opponents say was a bid to head off legal challenges to his re-election as president the previous month.


Sharif has said his first act in a new government would be to get Chaudhry back in his job. Chaudhry could then rule Musharraf's re-election illegal.


But Zardari has been non-committal on whether he would restore Chaudhry - one of a number of policy differences with Sharif, his late wife's one-time rival.


PPP and pro-Musharraf coalition: Musharraf will try to persuade Zardari to work with him and form a government with smaller parties, likely including the ousted PML-Q.


He must convince Zardari that it suits the PPP - set to be the biggest party in parliament - to leave Sharif and avoid a stand-off with the president when power is within the party's grasp after 12 years.


Musharraf could prey on existing tensions in this scenario. Zardari served jail time while Sharif was PM and Sharif was twice responsible for ousting Bhutto.


But Zardari will remember that an overwhelming number of PPP supporters hold Musharraf's establishment at least morally responsible for the slaying of their leader in December.


Street agitation: The opposition's election win headed off the immediate threat of protests against previously feared vote-rigging - the last thing Pakistan needed after the deadly riots that followed Bhutto's assassination.


But protests and violence are always a factor in Pakistan and never very far away. Lawyers demanding the restoration of the chief justice have vowed to launch a "long march" on March 9 to pressure Musharraf to give Chaudhry his job back.


The last lawyers' protests, in the first half of 2007, saw tens of thousands of people taking to the streets and were the start of Musharraf's current troubles.

 

 

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