Analysis by
Mata Press Service

Canadians will go to the polls May 2 to elect a new government and the new immigrant vote in Toronto and Vancouver is likely to be the difference on who takes Parliament.
The Stephen Harper Conservatives in their push for a majority have targeted at least a dozen ridings in the two cities which have diverse multicultural populations to woo ethnic voters.
Analysts for the Conservatives have structured well crafted plans that aim to attract ethnic communities, primarily new Canadians from South Asia, East Asia and the Philippines by showing the need for a stable government – something immigrants from these areas know the need for.
Harper, whose Conservative Party is ahead of the opposition Liberal Party led by Michael Ignatieff in poll surveys, has asked Canadians, new and established alike, to give him a majority this time after his two successive minority governments.
“Canadians need to understand clearly, without any ambiguity: unless Canadians elect a stable, national majority, Mr. Ignatieff will form a Coalition with the NDP (New Democratic Party) and Bloc Quebecois. They tried it before. It is clear they will try it again. And, next time, if given the chance, they will do it in a way that no one will be able to stop,” the Canadian prime minister said.
The prime minister said the election - forced by the opposition parties - could derail the economic recovery.
Prime Minister Harper, whose government is credited with steering Canada’s economy successfully amidst the global meltdown, formed the minority government in 2009. It was his second consecutive minority government since 2006.
Recent surveys have put his Conservative Party ahead of the main opposition Liberal Party.
The non-confidence motion was triggered by a report last week by the opposition-dominated procedure and House affairs committee which held that the Conservative government committed contempt of parliament for failing to release information related to the costs of crime legislation and the purchase of stealth fighter jets.
As the no-trust motion came for voting last week, all 156 opposition MPs belonging to the Liberal Party, the New Democratic Party and Bloc Quebecois voted for it.
“There is a no doubt the ethnic vote will play a key role especially in B.C…they like our anti-crime initiatives and this stealth fighter jet issue is a non-issue to most in the west,” said a Conservative party insider.
Last time around, B.C. elected 22 Conservative MPs, five more than it won in the previous polls, 9 New Democrats and 5 Liberals.
Conservative strategists then in 2008 said strong ethnic support gave the party its four extra seats in the Lower Mainland.
“This is on the strength, I think, of very much increased support from ethnic communities,” said David Emerson, the former Vancouver-Kingsway MP who ran the Tories’ B.C. campaign.
“If we did not have the ethnic vote, and I’m thinking in particular of the Chinese vote, but also in some other parts of the Lower Mainland, the Indo-Canadian vote, and perhaps the Korean and the Vietnamese vote as well, I don’t think we could have made the progress that we made,” he was quoted in The Province as saying.
Emerson said ethnic voters helped the Conservatives make gains on the North Shore, Richmond and Surrey.
A Liberal party strategist said new Canadians are simply no longer looking at the party that brought them to Canada.
“They are politically mature, intelligent and want leaders and laws who will embrace their needs and wants,” he said.
“In the last election, (then) Liberal leader Stephane Dion failed to connect with new Canadians and ethnic communities... if that had happened, we would have won…we won’t be making the same mistake again,” he said.
While the Indo-Canadian and Chinese-Canadian communities have already established their presence as strong and influential forces for politicians, the fast emerging Filipino community is expected to play a pivotal role in this elections.
All major parties have been trying to connect with the hundreds of Filipino-Canadian associations that dot the country. The Filipino-Canadian connections to the Roman Catholic church – about 85 per cent of Filipino migrants are Catholic – have also not been overlooked by party strategists.
Here are some of the races where the new Canadian vote could swing the riding;
Burnaby-Douglas - Conservative Ronald Leung will oppose NDP candidate Kennedy Stewart, a political scientist. This is a traditional NDP riding where incumbent MP Bill Siksay is stepping aside. He won Svend Robinson’s old riding in 2008 by only 800 votes against Leung.
Vancouver South – Former BC premier Ujjal Dosanjh won by only 20 votes over Conservative Wai Young. Many predict that Young, a businesswoman, will take this riding for the Conservatives in the rematch with Dosanjh, who is a controversial figure in the Indo-Canadian community.
North Vancouver – Taleeb Noormohamed, the Vancouver Olympic organizing committee’s vice-president of strategy and partnerships will take on Conservative MP Andrew Saxton. Taleeb has deep roots with the affluent Ismaili Muslim community and will prove to be a challenge for Saxton.
Surrey North -  Conservative MP Dona Cadman pulled off a narrow win in 2008. This time her challenge will come from NDP’s Jasbir Sandhu, a Surrey restaurateur and program manager at the Justice Institute of B.C.
Newton-North Delta – The seat is held by Liberal Sukh Dhaliwal, who was front and centre helping BC premier Christy Clark win her party’s top job recently. The Tories have yet to pick a candidate and some have suggested that former MP Grumant Grewal, whose wife holds the neighbouring riding of Fleetwood - Port Kells could make a comeback.
Vancouver- Kingsway –Liberal candidate Wendy Yuan who allegedly played up her Chinese heritage last time around is back to challenge her NDP rival Don Davies. They go up against the Conservatives Trang Nguyen, of Vietnamese descent, an accredited court interpreter working for the attorney general.

CANADA’S 41ST GENERAL ELECTION

THE 41ST FEDERAL GENERAL ELECTION WILL BE HELD ON MONDAY, MAY 2, 2011.
   
Local Elections Canada offices in 308 federal electoral districts are being opened.
   
Canadian citizens at least 18 years old on election day are eligible to vote.
   
Electors can vote on election day or on an advance voting day, on Friday, April 22, Saturday, April 23 or Monday, April 25.
   
Electors can also vote by mail or in person at their local Elections Canada office by special ballot. Electors who wish to vote this way must apply for their special ballot voting kit no later than 6:00 p.m. On Tuesday, April 26. Applications are available at www.elections.ca, by phone or in person at local Elections Canada offices and Canadian diplomatic or consular offices.