Adam Smith is often considered the father of modern economics and a significant proponent of the law of supply and demand. This economic theory postulates that when supply of a good is in abundance prices will fall and when the supply is diminished that prices will rise. Applying the principles of supply and demand to Canada’s immigration program, the Department of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) is in the enviable position of being able to “set their price” by being choosy as to who, how and when they will select which applicants to be able to come to Canada. A quick review of a few of our current immigration programs demonstrates this reality.

Express Entry

2024 represents the tenth year of Canada’s Express Entry (EE) selection system for immigration. EE comprises four separate immigration streams: Federal Skilled Worker (FSW), Canadian Experience Class (CEC), the Federals Skilled Trades Program (FSTP) and the Provincial Nominee Program (PNP). Each program has its own set of criteria and to be selected as an EE applicant you must demonstrate that you meet the criteria for at least one of these programs. Prospective immigrants must register a profile confirming the basic factors for consideration such as age, education, work experience and proficiency in English and French from which IRCC gives them a Comprehensive Ranking Score (CRS). From this pool of registrants, IRCC selects those with the highest CRS scores and offers them an Invitation to Apply (ITA) for permanent residence.

The demand for EE is extremely high and continuously growing. A review of the most recent 5 years for which IRCC has data clearly demonstrates this:

This represents a 151% increase in EE registrants in only 5 years!

Furthermore, a review of the rankings for 2023 and 2024 of EE registrants indicates the high calibre of applicants:

* I have not provided figures for CRS score ranges below 400.

The CRS scores for EE general selection for this year have ranged between a low of 524 and a high of 546. Those are extremely high scores precluding most registrants from a realistic chance of receiving an ITA. IRCC has further refined the EE selection process for targeted draws in certain employment sectors such as STEM occupations, transport, agriculture, agri-food and healthcare occupations as well as a French language proficiency draw. These targeted draws generally provide ITAs at a lower CRS score allowing IRCC to further control the selection process for EE applicants. These figures confirm a pool of highly qualified registrants in excess of 100,000 seeking permanent residence which demonstrates the continued high demand for Canadian immigration.

Parents and Grandparents Program (PGP)

The PGP program has essentially been frozen since 2020. This is because in 2020 IRCC moved to an “interest to sponsor” selection model whereby Canadians seeking to sponsor their parents or grandparents needed to register to demonstrate that they meet the criteria of the program. Approximately 200,000 Canadian citizens and permanent residents submitted interest to sponsor forms well beyond IRCC’s planned targets. The pool of sponsors has been frozen since that time with IRCC issuing ITAs each year only to those who registered in 2020. In 2022 and 2023 IRCC issued approximately 23/24,000 ITAs and will issue 37,500 for 2024. Cumulatively as of this year, they will have issued approximately 132,000 ITAs since 2020 leaving a further pool of approximately 70,000 hopeful sponsors. Given our significantly increased levels of immigration in the past decade, one can anticipate an extremely high level of demand for this program in the event that it is fully reopened to new sponsors.

*For a recent and more detailed review of the PGP program, refer to our blog: IRCC’s Parents and Grandparents Program Reopening Soon!

Business Immigration: Start Up Visa (SUV) and Self Employed (SE) classes

Canada’s business immigration program has had numerous ups and downs over the years.  With the introduction of the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act (IRPA) on June 28, 2002, Canada established three distinct business immigration categories: the Investor, the Entrepreneur and the Self Employed (SE) categories each with separate criteria.  After ten years, in 2012 the Investor and Entrepreneur programs were cancelled however the SE category remained.  In 2013 the Start Up visa was introduced as a pilot program designed to attract entrepreneurs with innovative business concepts that would be supported by Canadian financial entities: venture capital companies, angel investors and later, business incubators (referred to as Designated Organizations).  Uptake was slow in the first years picking up by around 2018.  However soon after that, and with the help of the global pandemic (continued applications but reduced processing) the number of SUV applications ballooned.  Recent statistics reported in this month’s edition of Lexbase provide IRCC data that as of February 29, 2024, there are currently 29,128 SUV applicants and 11,097 SE applicants representing approximately 7.7 years' worth of inventory of business applications!  With such data in hand, Minister for IRCC, The Honorable Marc Miller, announced on April 29, 2024, an immediate suspension (effective April 30!) of the SE program until the end of 2026 and an annual cap of 10 SUV applicants per Designated Organization severely restricting further intake.  The continued high demand for Canadian permanent residence by prospective business immigrants outstrips IRCCs capacity to process their applications. 

*For a recent and more detailed review of the changes to Canada’s business immigration program, please refer to our blog: Immigration Minister implements dramatic changes to Canada’s Business Immigration programs

As an immigration lawyer, I have come to view Canada’s immigration program as a numbers game and the numbers have for many years been in Canada’s favour. The demand for obtaining Canadian immigration status has remained strong through the 30+ years that I have been practicing and shows no sign of diminishing anytime soon. The laws of supply and demand being what they are, given the considerable demand for Canadian immigration status, IRCC is basically able to set their “price” in terms of selecting those immigrants that they determine are best suited for Canada’s economic and cultural needs. Being realistic about your options and chances for qualifying for Canada immigration is essential in this highly competitive marketplace.

Catherine Sas, K.C. has over 30 years of legal experience. She provides a full range of immigration services and is a leading immigration practitioner (Lexpert, Who’s Who Legal, Best Lawyers in Canada). Go to canadian-visa-lawyer.com or email [email protected].