Canada's record-high immigration levels face a stark reality check as new data reveals growing dissatisfaction among recent arrivals.
A survey by the Angus Reid Institute shows that 39% of immigrants who have lived in Canada for less than a decade are seriously considering leaving their province due to housing affordability issues, compared to 28% of Canadians overall.
The housing crisis is particularly acute in major urban centers, where many newcomers tend to settle.
In Downtown Toronto, 44% of residents are considering relocating, with 22% strongly considering it. Metro Vancouver shows similar trends, with one-third of residents unsure about their long-term future in the region.
This trend poses a significant risk to Canada's economic hubs, potentially leading to a workforce exodus from city cores.
The situation is exacerbated by rapidly rising housing costs across the country, with some provinces experiencing year-over-year average rent increases exceeding 17%. The impact extends beyond housing, affecting overall quality of life for newcomers.
Recent immigrants report feeling misled about life in Canada, with many struggling to find suitable employment despite their qualifications. Some even contemplate leaving the country altogether, with 42% of those considering relocation looking at destinations outside Canada.
This growing dissatisfaction could have far-reaching implications for Canada's immigration policy and its reputation as a welcoming destination for newcomers. As the government aims to attract 500,000 immigrants annually by 2026, addressing these challenges will ensure the successful integration and retention of new Canadians.
Angus Reid said the most common destination for those considering relocating is another province in Canada.
Nearly half say this (45%) with Alberta being the top choice (18%). That said, one-quarter say they would leave for another country beyond the U.S. (27%) and 15 percent would head south to that latter nation.
Alberta is the primary potential beneficiary of emigrants from B.C., with 35 percent saying they would travel one province east if they were to leave.
In Ontario, the largest group say they would move abroad beyond the U.S. (26%), while Alberta ties for second (17%) with Canada's southern neighbor (17%).
Meanwhile, a Bloomberg analysis said Canada's jobless rate is experiencing an uptick due to the influx of short-term residents and newly arrived immigrants.
Despite being welcomed to address workforce gaps, these newcomers are now facing significant challenges in securing employment.
In June, the unemployment rate for transient inhabitants – encompassing overseas workers, foreign students, and refuge seekers – stood at 11%, based on Bloomberg's analysis.
In contrast, the overall workforce unemployment rate was a mere 6.2% during the same period.
Recent immigrants who have arrived within the past five years are also encountering difficulties in finding work, with their unemployment rate climbing to 12.6% in June.
Sunil Sharma, an immigration expert at Allway Immigration stated that the primary factor driving the increase in unemployment figures has been the temporary resident category.
Tiff Macklem, the Bank of Canada's Governor, recently highlighted that the softening job market has disproportionately affected young workers and newcomers. He noted that these groups are more likely to be tenants, a demographic facing increased financial pressure.
Macklem suggested that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's administration has the flexibility to decelerate the growth of non-permanent residents without causing labor shortages or market constriction. The government intends to reduce this group by 20% over a three-year period.
Bloomberg's calculations indicate that the impact of temporary residents and recent immigrants on the overall unemployment rate has more than doubled in less than 24 months.
These two groups represent nearly 20% of all jobless individuals, despite comprising only 10% of the workforce.
Bloomberg's analysis shows that the unemployment rate for temporary residents reached its lowest point of 5.7% in November 2021.
This suggests that the Trudeau government's decision to ease restrictions for foreign students and workers during the pandemic may have had unintended consequences. While the additional workforce was initially necessary to fill job vacancies in 2022, newcomers are increasingly finding themselves unemployed as open positions become scarce.
Vinay Chaudhary from Dev Immigration Sevices anticipates that a reduction in the number of temporary residents will lead to a corresponding drop in unemployment. He remarked, "By decreasing and reversing this category of immigration, we may see a slight decline in the unemployment rate."
It typically takes years for newcomers to fully assimilate into Canada's job market: the unemployment rate for recent immigrants is more than double that of Canadian-born workers. However, after a decade or more, immigrants tend to find employment at nearly the same rate as native-born Canadians, according to the data.
Brendon Bernard, an economist at Indeed, describes the labor market as "splitting into two distinct groups."
He notes that Canadians with stable careers are faring well, as there hasn't been an increase in layoffs. However, for gig workers or those new to the job market, conditions are more challenging.
"Employers' enthusiasm for hiring has significantly diminished, and a surge in population growth has led to an abundance of job seekers in Canada," he said.