By Mata Press Service

After decades of steady decline, crime rates in Canada and the United States have begun ticking upward in recent years, prompting renewed concern over public safety, states a new report by the Fraser Institute

The detailed comparative analysis of violent and property crimes in major urban areas across both nations from 2019 to 2022, which reveals surprising insights, was based on data from Canadian Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) and U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs).

In Canada, urban crime trends show considerable variability. Winnipeg emerged as the Canadian urban center with the highest violent crime rate, recording 675 incidents per 100,000 residents, placing it 18th overall when compared with 334 North American cities. It closely followed Bakersfield, California, with 685 incidents, and narrowly surpassed Fresno, California, with 674 incidents.

Thunder Bay, Ontario, registered the second-highest violent crime rate among Canadian cities at 546 per 100,000, ranking 42nd overall—positioned between Greensboro-High Point, North Carolina, and Santa Fe, New Mexico. Regina and Saskatoon followed closely, recording 472 and 413 violent crimes per 100,000, respectively.

Conversely, Guelph, Barrie, Quebec City, and Sherbrooke were among the safest Canadian cities, with violent crime rates of 148, 143, 112, and 102 per 100,000, respectively, illustrating a clear regional gradient with Eastern Canada reporting significantly lower violent crime rates compared to Western provinces.

The narrative shifts considerably for property crimes, where Canadian cities prominently lead North American rankings. Lethbridge, Alberta, tops the combined list, recording a staggering 5,521 property crimes per 100,000 residents, while Kelowna, British Columbia, follows closely at 4,932. These Canadian cities outranked their American counterparts Pueblo, Colorado (4,911), and Alexandria, Louisiana (4,539).

Winnipeg, once again notable for high crime, registered 4,075 property crimes per 100,000, further emphasizing the city’s dual challenge of high violent and property crime rates. Ottawa-Gatineau (Quebec side), Sherbrooke, Saguenay, and Quebec City reported the lowest property crime rates among Canadian cities, all significantly below national averages.

Despite representing only 10% of the cities analyzed, Canadian CMAs constituted 24% of the urban areas in the top decile for property crimes, highlighting an alarming concentration of property-related criminal activity in certain Canadian locales. In contrast, violent crime rates in Canadian urban areas appear relatively moderate compared to their American counterparts.

Across the border, American MSAs display substantial variation. Memphis, Tennessee, with a violent crime rate of 1,311 per 100,000, leads all North American urban centers, underscoring the severity of violent crime issues faced by certain American cities. Springfield, Illinois, marked the bottom of the highest decile in the U.S. with 601 per 100,000, revealing how widely violent crime rates range even within the top tier.

For property crime in the U.S., Pueblo, Colorado, and Tulsa, Oklahoma, define the extremes of the highest decile, with rates from 4,911 to 3,228 per 100,000 respectively. Conversely, the safest American urban areas, including Aguadilla-Isabela, Puerto Rico, reported remarkably low property crime rates at 496 per 100,000.

The regional differences further illuminate these crime trends. Canadian Western provinces—particularly Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, and British Columbia—consistently reported the highest crime rates, whereas Eastern provinces, especially Quebec, recorded notably lower figures. The U.S. exhibited a similar pattern, with New England and Middle Atlantic regions consistently reporting the lowest crime rates.

Regional cross-border comparisons offer a further dimension of insight. For example, Winnipeg ranks alarmingly high among urban centers in the Manitoba-Saskatchewan-West North Central region, second only to its American counterpart cities. Similarly, British Columbia’s urban areas, including Kelowna and Vancouver, dominated the top positions for property crimes within the Pacific region, surpassing many notable U.S. cities.

Quebec stands out uniquely, consistently reporting some of the lowest crime rates in North America, particularly regarding property crimes. Montreal, the province's largest city, is middle-ranked regionally, but the province’s smaller urban centers consistently fall within the safest tier, exemplifying Quebec’s unique positioning as a notably safer area.

This extensive comparative analysis challenges widely held perceptions about crime in Canada versus the United States. While traditionally seen as safer, Canada faces significant urban crime challenges, especially regarding property crimes in western provinces. Conversely, numerous American cities demonstrate crime rates comparable to or lower than their Canadian counterparts, complicating narratives about safety and crime prevalence.

The study, authored by Livio Di Matteo, underscores the complexity of urban crime dynamics in North America, urging policymakers to consider nuanced regional differences when crafting responses and preventive strategies.

As crime rates begin to climb after a prolonged decline, addressing these emerging trends effectively remains critical to ensuring continued public safety and community well-being.

Key Highlights

• This study examines total property and total violent crimes, adjusted for population, across 36 Canadian Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) and over 300 U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). The data reported covers the 2019 to 2022 period.

• In general, after decades of decline, recent years have seen increases in crime rates in both Canada and the United States, though by historic standards rates remain low.

• For violent crimes, the top (worst) ranked city was Memphis, TN (1,311 per 100,000) while the top ranked Canadian city was Winnipeg, which ranked 18th overall at 675 per 100,000.

• Twenty-five percent of Canadian CMAs are in the top half of Canada-U.S. violent crime rankings with the remaining 75 percent in the bottom half.

• For property crime, the top (worst) ranked city was Lethbridge, AB at 5,521 per 100,000. Kelowna, BC ranked second highest (4,932 per 100,000). Pueblo, CO at 4,911 per 100,000 ranked third overall and was the highest (worst) ranked U.S. city.

• While Canadian CMAs make up roughly 10 percent of the CMAs and MSAs used in this ranking, when it comes to property crime rates, they account for 24 percent of the top (worst) 10 percent of the property crime rankings whereas in the case of violent crimes they accounted for only 3 percent of the cities in the top 10 percent.

• There is a distinct east-west divide in the data in that eastern Canadian cities, particularly in Quebec, tend to have lower rates (adjusted for population) of both violent and property crime compared to the west. A similar east-west trend holds in the United States.